Vaccine and economic recovery, Usa ahead of Europe

With several Covid vaccines approaching the approval stage by the competent authorities, Goldman Sachs conducted research on the possible spread of the vaccine and the impact on the economic restart in major developed countries, using both supply-side data provided by major manufacturers, and the results of surveys and surveys conducted among the population on the demand side.

ADMINISTRATION IN THE USA ALREADY IN DECEMBER
The results of the Goldman research, illustrated by a report by Daan Struyven and Sid Bhushan, indicate that in the United States the expectation is that the first available doses can begin to be administered to population groups at higher risk as early as mid-December. In this perspective, the forecast formulated is that significant public health benefits can begin to be seen from the first quarter of next year, with the estimate of widespread vaccinations starting in April.

WIDESPREAD VACCINATIONS BY MID-2021
Looking at the entire universe of developed countries, Goldman Sachs research predicts that large portions of the population can be vaccinated by the latter part of the second quarter of 2021. In particular, research estimates that in Britain 50% of the population may have been vaccinated as early as March, while the US and Canada would follow soon after in April, while for the European Union, Japan and Australia will have to wait until May.

The negative SCENARIO hypothesis
With abundant vaccine production expected in the second quarter of 2021, it should be demand and no longer supply to drive the spread of anti-Covid, surpassing 70% of the population during the fall across the area of developed countries. Goldman Sachs research also explores a possible negative scenario, which predicts that vaccines developed by AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson are unsuccessful and that demand is weaker than expected.

Expected economic rebound strengthened
In this scenario, vaccinations would proceed more slowly in Europe, which is more dependent on the supply of the two houses, but would also cause weaker demand in other geographical areas and consequently fewer vaccinations, particularly in the USA and Japan. While the exact timing of the large-scale spread of the vaccine remains obviously still uncertain, ricercar nevertheless reinforces Goldman Sachs ' baseline forecast that achieving widespread immunization would prompt a sharp rebound in global economic growth starting in the second quarter of 2021.

Bper: capital ratios 'significantly higher' than ECB minimum requirements

L'edizione 2021 del Salone del Mobile si terrà dal 5 al 10 settembre 2021, posticipata dalle consuete date che cadono ad aprile. La notizia è accolta con favore dal titolo Fiera Milano arrivato a oltre il +4% sopra i 3 euro.

Il Salone del Mobile è una delle fiere più importanti del calendario di Fiera Milano e la notizia ha risvolti positivi per l'operatore fieristico italiano. "Il rinvio a un periodo nel 2021 in cui il vaccino COVID-19 dovrebbe essere ampiamente diffuso consente di mantenere un'edizione normale", sottolineano gli esperti di Intesa Sanpaolo.
La BCE, per quanto riguarda il processo di revisione e valutazione della vigilanza (SREP), ha annunciato che non emetterà alcuna decisione sui pertinenti requisiti prudenziali nel 2020 e, pertanto, Bper dovrà conformarsi ai Requisiti attualmente in vigore.

BPER deve mantenere su base consolidata per il 2021 un coefficiente minimo di capitale in termini di Common Equity Tier 1 ("un CET1 ratio) pari al 8,125%, costituito dalla somma del minimo regolamentare Pilastro 1 pari al 4,5%, l'ulteriore requisito del rispetto del Pilastro 2, pari a 1.125% 2 e il Buffer di Conservazione del Capitale pari al 2,5%, mentre il requisito minimo di Totale patrimonio netto ("Total Capital ratio") deve essere pari al 12,5%.

I coefficienti patrimoniali consolidati di BPER al 30 settembre 2020 sono significativamente superiori ai requisiti patrimoniali minimi richiesti dalla BCE con il Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio Phased in pro-forma 3 del 14,61%. L'indice pro-forma 4 fully Loaded è del 13,03%, mentre il total Capital ratio Phased in pro-forma 5 è del 17,53%
Wall Street in rialzo, con il Dow Jones che avanza di circa 100 punti. Tieni d'occhio l'indice di paura CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), che è sceso sotto la soglia dei 20 punti per la prima volta dalla fine di febbraio. Insieme al Nasdaq e allo S&P, Il Dow Jones ha guadagnato circa il 2% su base settimanale.

Oggi è il Black Friday, giornata cruciale per lo shopping negli States ma anche per quello di tutto il mondo, visto che diversi paesi hanno adottato la giornata, tutta dedicata a forti sconti. A Wall Street, le azioni al dettaglio stanno avanzando, sperando nel successo delle promozioni: well Gap, Shopify e Wal-Mart. Anche in aumento è stato Amazon, che ha annunciato tra le altre cose che spenderà più di.500 milioni di bonus per le vacanze per i dipendenti che serviranno durante le festività natalizie.

I lavoratori a tempo pieno riceveranno un bonus di dollari 300, mentre i lavoratori part-time riceveranno un bonus di parte 150.

Sotto i riflettori anche altri titoli, come AstraZeneca: CEO Pascal Soriot ha detto, in un'intervista a Bloomberg, che il gigante farmaceutico potrebbe lanciare una nuova sperimentazione globale per testare il candidato vaccino covid a dosaggi più bassi, invece di aggiungere un test a dosaggi più bassi al processo in corso negli Stati Uniti.

Focus anche sull'altro colosso farmaceutico che ha messo a punto un vaccino contro il coronavirus, ovvero sull'americana Pfizer che, secondo alcune indiscrezioni arrivate dal Canada, potrebbe ricevere l'approvazione da parte delle autorità sanitarie per l'utilizzo del vaccino già a dicembre. In precedenza erano circolate voci sull'approvazione del candidato al vaccino nel primo trimestre di 2021.

Attenzione a Facebook, dopo che un articolo del Financial Times ha riferito che il gigante di Mark Zuckerberg potrebbe lanciare la sua valuta digitale "Libra", in versione limitata, a partire dal prossimo gennaio.

Attenzione infine a Walt-Disney, che ha portato il numero di licenziamenti previsti dai precedenti 28.000 annunciati a settembre a 32.000. Il gigante sconta la chiusura del parco a tema Disneyland in California e il fatto che altri parchi hanno aperto ma con una capienza ridotta..

Tesla also overtakes Buffett on Wall Street, now only the 5 Big Tech are worth more

Piazza Affari positively archives the last session of a week that saw the Milan Stock Exchange stretch its positive streak again. The Ftse Mib closed at 22,351 points, with a progress of 0.68% that brings the balance to over +24% from the beginning of the month when there is now only one session left at the end of November.

In Italy, the Btp auction saw new historical lows for 5-and 10-year Btp rates, falling to 0.01% and 0.59% respectively.

Among the big ones in Piazza Affari, the positive moment is confirmed for Telecom Italia, which again took forward a further +1.57% with quotations returned well above the threshold of 0.40 euros with a balance of almost +40% in the last month. Keep waiting for an unblocking of the unique network dossier. Infratel allegedly sent a letter to Open Fiber about the delays in the implementation of the FTTH coverage plan. "The intervention of Infratelcreates further pressure on OF and indirectly on ENEL to accelerate the rete unica project, a positive catalyst for TIM", the experts of Equita SIM point out.

Sprint today for Hera, which gained 2.85% to 3,175 euros, closing ahead of the Ftse Mib. The Emilian utility yesterday placed on the market of Eurobonds a bond aimed at qualified investors of the nominal amount of 500 million euros and with a duration of 10 years that saw orders for 4 times the offer.

Among the banks stands out today Bper with +1,75% to 1,51 euro. Well also Intesa Sanpaolo with +0,8%.

On the opposite front instead, down Pirelli that yielded over 2 percentage points. Also bad Leonardo (- xxx%) with an article in La Stampa that talks about slowdowns in the process relating to a potential maxi-order that would include 24 Eurofighters in addition to an unspecified number of M-346 flight trainers.
Tesla continues to grind records on Wall Street and still climbs the ranking in the gotha of the most capitalized securities. With the jump of about 4% ordierno, which projects the stock in the area 595 dollars (reached a record peak at 598,77 $), the market cap of the electric car giant jumped to about 562 billion dollars, surpassing that of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway in sixth place among the mega caps of Wall Street.
Tesla shares have risen more than 600% since the beginning of the year making Elon Musk the second richest person in the world behind Jeff Bezos.

The latest rumors reported yesterday by Reuters see Tesla poised to start producing electric vehicle chargers in China next year as part of its mission to boost sales in the Asian country. Tesla's domineering rally is not scratched by the indiscretion collected by the Afp agency, which cites the Chinese market authority, about the risk that Tesla will have to recall 870 Model X cars in China due to a problem in the roof covering. The risk is that some parts may fall creating a collision hazard on the road.

Tesla stock as of December 21 will become part of the S&P 500 index, a change that will force index funds to buy about.50 billion of its shares and Goldman Sachs estimated last week that actively managed mutual funds could buy another 8 8 billion.

Intesa: in Milan, 144 SMEs with 3.2 billion revenues report of 'winning companies'

"In Italy, the pandemic has hit hard on hospitality and spa companies, which are undoubtedly among the most affected, if not the most affected at all. In these weeks, we are witnessing a replica of what was already seen during the spring lockdown, when Istat recorded a 91% drop in attendance in the accommodation exercises (7 million overnight stays in the March ‐ May 2020 quarter, compared to 81 million in the corresponding period of the previous year).

Gloomy prospects loom over the holiday season and the winter holidays." This is denounced by the Director General of Federalberghi Alessandro Massimo Nucara in the hearing on Bill N. 2790 bis before the productive activities, trade and Tourism Committee of the Chamber of Deputies.

In 2020 will be less 165 million foreign presences (-74.6%) and 81 million Italian presences (-37.5%). Total attendance will be well 245 million less (-56.2%). The revenue of the receptive sector will suffer a loss of 14 billion euros( -57%) - between August and December the government has estimated for the tourism and Spa sectors a reduction of 70% of hiring compared to the same period of 2019.
A group of companies that collectively generated in 2019 approximately € 3.2 billion turnover, marking a growth ten times higher than the Italian average in the last six years, employing over 15,000 employees, with a growth rate eight times higher than the national average from 2014 to the present. "Despite the difficulties that the crisis pandemic is causing, the response and the participation of Italian smes was total, demonstrating that the common features of Italian entrepreneurship are passion, ingenuity, Italian and determination," says the head of the Banca dei Territori Division of Intesa Sanpaolo, Stefano Barrese. By the testimonies of entrepreneurs emerges a picture that in some way draw a line important to the recovery, by showing that, even in this difficult phase of the crisis, these smes have continued to invest on the basic guidelines for growth: sustainability, innovation, human capital, generational transition, internationalization, connection with the territory and with their chains of production, in addition to a strong focus on the social impact generated on its territory.

From clothing to agri-food, from industry and services to chemical and metalworking, from fashion to furniture and design, textiles, transport, but also medical and pharmaceutical, to digital and Ict: these are some of the product categories to which the 'winning companies' 2020 belong. According to the analyses carried out on this sample of companies, during the digital tour that lasted more than two months, at the time of the crisis, training and welfare systems were a critical factor of success to look beyond the pandemic phase, alongside investments, with a reorientation towards digitalization and sustainability. The strong link with its territory of rooting has been an element that has characterized all companies and has contributed to international growth. This element emerged in particular also in the stage dedicated to social enterprises, new in the 2020 edition, from which it emerged how the integration between profit and non-profit is a crucial factor, as a lever for the creation of social well-being for all communities. Also for the' winning companies 2020 ' the selected SMEs will be included in growth support and visibility programs at national level offered by Intesa Sanpaolo and the partners of the initiative, Bain & Company, Elite, Gambero Rosso, together with Cerved and Microsoft Italia.

Gualtieri, further commitment at EU level for the sectors most affected

A postponement of the instalments of the scrapping ter and the balance and excerpt to March 1, 2021: this, according to what is learned, would be the government's guideline to prevent from December 10 those who have debts with the Tax Office vanga called again to pay, after the suspension decided in the first phase of the Covid epidemic. The measure should therefore enter the' menu ' of the decree Ristori quater, although still the text of the measure has not been closed.

The executive would also have assumed the stop until April 30, 2021 to taxes for those who have suffered loss of turnover due to Covid. The measure should come with the decree Ristori quater. The new decree will confirm for December the suspensions already arranged for the month of November for the red zones and will introduce a new fiscal moratorium, linked to the Covid crisis: it should in fact slip to next 30 April the payment of the second Deposit Irpef, Ires and Irap planned for 30 November. The measure should apply to those who suffered a decrease in turnover of 33% over the six months.
"A joint proposal at European level for new support for the sectors most affected by the crisis, in the coming months such as tourism, skiing, bars and restaurants". This is what the Minister of Economy Roberto Gualtieri announced, after the meeting with the French Minister of Finance Bruno Le Maire.

'The budgetary deviation that is being voted on in these minutes will allow us to intervene on the next fiscal deadlines by suspending them wider than the one made so far that concerned only the sectors of the Ateco codes.
We are working for the next decree that will use these eight billion for the postponement of tax deadlines for all economic sectors that have suffered losses', the minister also explained.

"The government's position is always the same: we consider that debts by definition must be repaid and are always repaid. And that the Italian strategy for debt cancellation, and its reduction is through a path of public finance that is focused on growth, on investment and on the financial policies and budget today, with the need for a strong fiscal stimulus, tax but as of course, as indicated by the Nadef, in the medium to long term must put the debt on a path of gradual reduction and sustainable," he added Gualtieri answering a question of journalists.

A postponement of the instalments of the scrapping ter and the balance and excerpt to March 1, 2021: this, according to what is learned, would be the government's guideline to prevent from December 10 those who have debts with the Tax Office vanga called again to pay, after the suspension decided in the first phase of the Covid epidemic. The measure should therefore enter the' menu ' of the decree Ristori quater, although still the text of the measure has not been closed.


The executive would also have assumed the stop until April 30, 2021 to taxes for those who have suffered loss of turnover due to Covid. The measure should come with the decree Ristori quater. The new decree will confirm for December the suspensions already arranged for the month of November for the red zones and will introduce a new fiscal moratorium, linked to the Covid crisis: it should in fact slip to next 30 April the payment of the second Deposit Irpef, Ires and Irap planned for 30 November. The measure should apply to those who suffered a decrease in turnover of 33% over the six months.
"A joint proposal at European level for new support for the sectors most affected by the crisis, in the coming months such as tourism, skiing, bars and restaurants". This is what the Minister of Economy Roberto Gualtieri announced, after the meeting with the French Minister of Finance Bruno Le Maire.

'The budgetary deviation that is being voted on in these minutes will allow us to intervene on the next fiscal deadlines by suspending them wider than the one made so far that concerned only the sectors of the Ateco codes.
We are working for the next decree that will use these eight billion for the postponement of tax deadlines for all economic sectors that have suffered losses', the minister also explained.

"The government's position is always the same: we consider that debts by definition must be repaid and are always repaid. And that the Italian strategy for debt cancellation, and its reduction is through a path of public finance that is focused on growth, on investment and on the financial policies and budget today, with the need for a strong fiscal stimulus, tax but as of course, as indicated by the Nadef, in the medium to long term must put the debt on a path of gradual reduction and sustainable," he added Gualtieri answering a question of journalists.

Here is Black Friday, in Covid era stravinces the web

This year, however, the pandemic has taken its toll, profoundly changing its features and transforming what was a pre-Christmas shopping day around the already decorated streets of cities in yet another moment to pass in front of tablet and pc screens.

The mandatory closure of stores in the red and orange areas and shopping centers, galleries and department stores on the weekend also in yellow regions such as Lazio inevitably pushes towards online shopping, so much so that - according to Confesercenti-83 million euros of sales per day are passing from physical stores to the web. 

The calculation is on the days of the week because another of the characteristics of the 2020. 

Is just the formalization of the black week, already experienced in some cases in the past years and become mandatory this year, to cope with the stop of the end of the week, and dilute it so as possible in the time occasions of purchase.

 

For Fismo, the Association of Confessercenti fashion trade companies, spending on clothing and accessories is the one that is undergoing the most significant transfer, with 25 million euros per day of household spending diverted to the internet. But the impact is significant even on games and toys for boys and children (€20 million transferred to the e-commerce every day), technology and home appliances (15 million per day for both sectors), and books (about 300 thousand euros per day).

 

Also according to data from the Observatory Compass, Consumer Credit Company of the Mediobanca Group, among Italians who intend to shop for Black Friday, 84% are ready to buy online and only 42% in stores. According to the Central Director of Marketing and Innovation Luigi Pace, something good is there anyway because the appointment " can help the country to restart consumption, especially in view of Christmas. 

 

Italians - he explains-want normality and do not want to give up putting gifts under the tree". 

 

However, the budget available is affected by the overall contraction in consumption. This year, Compass still calculates, is equal to 284 euros, down 7% compared to 2019.

 

Faced with the overwhelming power of the web, the fear is that at this rate thousands of stores are gradually forced to close. "We have presented an antitrust expose to signal the serious distortion of competition that has been created with the anti-contagion restrictions: - explains Fabio Tinti, national president of Fismo - while the stores are closed, the web acts in conditions of Monopoly or almost. It is a problem that must be solved, especially if the containment rules were to be extended". 

Confcommercio has instead launched the campaign "I buy under house because I feel at home" aimed at supporting purchases in neighborhood stores "and thus help the activities that keep Cities Alive and give jobs to many people".