Vaccine and economic recovery, Usa ahead of Europe

With several Covid vaccines approaching the approval stage by the competent authorities, Goldman Sachs conducted research on the possible spread of the vaccine and the impact on the economic restart in major developed countries, using both supply-side data provided by major manufacturers, and the results of surveys and surveys conducted among the population on the demand side.

ADMINISTRATION IN THE USA ALREADY IN DECEMBER
The results of the Goldman research, illustrated by a report by Daan Struyven and Sid Bhushan, indicate that in the United States the expectation is that the first available doses can begin to be administered to population groups at higher risk as early as mid-December. In this perspective, the forecast formulated is that significant public health benefits can begin to be seen from the first quarter of next year, with the estimate of widespread vaccinations starting in April.

WIDESPREAD VACCINATIONS BY MID-2021
Looking at the entire universe of developed countries, Goldman Sachs research predicts that large portions of the population can be vaccinated by the latter part of the second quarter of 2021. In particular, research estimates that in Britain 50% of the population may have been vaccinated as early as March, while the US and Canada would follow soon after in April, while for the European Union, Japan and Australia will have to wait until May.

The negative SCENARIO hypothesis
With abundant vaccine production expected in the second quarter of 2021, it should be demand and no longer supply to drive the spread of anti-Covid, surpassing 70% of the population during the fall across the area of developed countries. Goldman Sachs research also explores a possible negative scenario, which predicts that vaccines developed by AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson are unsuccessful and that demand is weaker than expected.

Expected economic rebound strengthened
In this scenario, vaccinations would proceed more slowly in Europe, which is more dependent on the supply of the two houses, but would also cause weaker demand in other geographical areas and consequently fewer vaccinations, particularly in the USA and Japan. While the exact timing of the large-scale spread of the vaccine remains obviously still uncertain, ricercar nevertheless reinforces Goldman Sachs ' baseline forecast that achieving widespread immunization would prompt a sharp rebound in global economic growth starting in the second quarter of 2021.